International rubber study group IRSG forecasts that the total synthetic rubber consumption worldwide in 2015 would obtain 29.1 million tons and lift to 30.3 mil tons in 2016 as demand for plastic products is anticipated to rise 6.6%/year, gaining 158 billion USD thanks to improving economic situation in the world. Tire is the product consuming the largest quantity of synthetic rubber (over 50%) and this trend will continue in upcoming years. It is foreseen that world tire demand will grow at average of 4.3%/year, up to 2.9 billion tires by 2017. Regarding in value, consumption in the tire industry will rise by 7.9%/year up to 281 billion USD. In accordance of Transparency’s forecast, international synthetic rubber market will reach 45 billion USD by 2023 with average growth rate stands at 5.1% over the period 2015 – 2023.
Up to date, Vietnam has plans to set up the second petrochemical complex, including 1 million tons/year of polyethylene, 500,000 tons polypropylene and 400,000 tons PVC with aim of meeting the domestic demand until 2025. PetroVietnam’s projects which have currently seek foreign investment consist of Long Son Refinery with the capital of 8 billion USD in Vung Tau province, designed to treat 10 million tons each year and completed the establishment by 2020; and the expansion of Dung Quat Refinery in 2015, adding more 2 million tons/year. In 2014, Nghi Son Petrochemical and refinery complex increased the investment by 375,000 tons PP/year while Long Son complex had additional 800,000 tons PE/year and 450,000 tons PP/year. Besides, Vung Ro refinery received the permit to produce 50,800 tons PP/year and 28,900 tons benzene/year. This project was scheduled to finish at the end of 2013, according to the initial plan.
By 2018, Vietnam will complete the construction of 3 -5 petrochemical refineries with the total capital of about 26 – 32 million tons/year, build and put into operations around 1 -2 petrochemical complex manufacturing fundamental petrochemical products. Up to 2025, Vietnam will also finish the enlargement and construct 6 -7 petrochemical refineries with total capacity of 45 – 60 million tons/year, satisfying 50% of basis petrochemical demand. With the completion and commissioning petrochemical refinery projects, typically Nghi Son and Long Son refinery are going to transfer Vietnam tire industry from a polymer net importer to a nation not only able to self – supply core types of polymer but also become a world’s large exporter of plastic particles.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade’s prediction reveals that automobile consumption will sharply increase in the coming years, especially after many FTAs take effect. In particular, by 2025, demand for Vietnam’s automobile will reach 800,000 – 900,000 vehicles and by 2030 these figures will increase 1.5 – 1.8 million vehicles. Provisions of increasing the proportion of vehicles manufactured or assembled in the country would create geographical balanced growth for domestic consumption regarding tire industry’s products. In such situation, it is forecast that in this year and the upcoming years, sales of automotive tires are capable of noticeable growth, particularly radial tires. It also should be noticed that in the tires industry, automobile tires are not excess in number though the market value accounts for over 50%, motorcycle tires cover about 42% in value, the rest belongs to bicycle tires.
