Although coffee output decreased, the increase in prices of this commodity brought Vietnam export revenue of 3.2 billion USD in the first half of 2024, an increase of 34.5% over the same period.
REGISTER TO IMMEDIATELY RECEIVE VIETNAM COFFEE MARKET REPORT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2024
The 2023–2024 crop year has seen a sharp increase in coffee export prices. The average price increased by almost 50% from the previous crop year to $3,673 USD/ton, according to customs data. Robusta green coffee also hit a new high of $5,050 USD/ton, while export prices hit a record high of $5,760 USD/ton even in September.
Coffee exports nearly reached a record of 4.2 billion USD after 8 months
According to information from Vicofa, the amount of Robusta coffee exported decreased slightly by about 13.4%. However, thanks to the record high prices, Vietnam’s total export turnover in August 2024 still reached nearly 400 million USD, up 54.8% over the same period last year. Traditional markets such as the US and Europe are still important destinations for Vietnamese coffee.
Vietnam’s coffee export turnover to markets in the first half of 2024
Source: TCHQ
With a total export volume of more than 1.05 million tons in the first 8 months of the year, Vietnamese coffee continues to affirm its position in the world market. Specifically, Robusta dominates with 885,000 tons, while Arabica contributes 45,000 tons. Although the volume decreased slightly, export turnover still increased by 36.4%, reaching nearly 4.04 billion USD.
Coffee prices have peaked, reaching an unprecedented record level
Experts predict that if major central banks continue to cut interest rates, Vietnamese coffee exports will grow even stronger in the near future. In particular, the fact that roasters promote buying for storage will make the prices higher. This increase is mainly due to the impact of prolonged drought and rising global demand for specialty coffee.
Source: Mercantile Exchange of Vietnam
According to information from MXV, Arabica and Robusta coffee prices have increased by 5.14% and 4.29%, respectively. The decrease in supply of the USD/BRL exchange rate is the main factor driving up market prices.
Will the cost of coffee keep rising?
Recently, PCE in the US was announced to have increased slightly by 0.2% in September 2024. This has increased hopes about the possibility that FED will cut interest rates in the near future. If this scenario takes place, the USD is likely to continue to depreciate compared to other currencies, creating favorable conditions for the prices.
Furthermore, during the first nine months of this year, Vietnam’s export coffee prices have increased significantly. In particular, the price rose 56% from the same time last year to 3,896 USD/ton. Vietnam’s agricultural exports have increased at a record rate. The prices are expected to stay high in the upcoming crop year due to the strong level of market demand.
REGISTER TO RECEIVE THE MARKET REPORT ON VIETNAMESE COFFEE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2024
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