Vietnam Macroeconomics

According to the January 2020 update report, the IMF predicts that the global economy will grow from 2.9% in 2019 to 3.3% in 2020 and reach 3.4% in 2021 – an increase. growth in 2019 and 2020 decreased by 0.1 percentage points, by 2021 by 0.2 percentage points compared to the forecast for October 2019. In 2019, the USD fluctuated with the narrowest exchange band for decades. Specifically, the greenback has at times been quite strong in value decline January 2019 and early February, however, quickly rebounded and reached the highest level in the third quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the whole year of 2019 is estimated to increase 7.02%, although lower than the increase of 7.08% in 2018 but higher than the increase of the years 2011-2017. 2019 reached US $ 517 billion, up 7.7% over the same period last year. For the whole year of 2019, the trade balance continued to record a trade surplus of 9.9 billion USD (up 46.2% over the same period last year). The ratio of public debt to GDP in 2019 is estimated at 56.1%, lower than the rate of 58.4% at the end of 2018. Credit growth to the end of 2019 is estimated at 13.5% compared to the end of 2018, this is the lowest increase. in the last 5 years. The total value of M&A deals in Vietnam in 2019 is estimated at 7.6 billion USD and is forecasted to continue to maintain at 7-7.5 billion USD in 2020. Vietnam’s participation in free trade agreements in recent years such as AEC, CPTPP, EVFTA … will be an opportunity to boost exports.

Abbreviation

Executive summary 

1.World econimic situation 

 1.1 Economic growth rate

 1.2 Commodity market

  1. Vietnam economic situation

 2.1 Economic growth rate

  2.1.1 GDP

  2.1.2 Production 

  2.1.3 Consumption

  2.1.4 Investment 

  2.1.5 Export-import

  2.1.6 CPI

  2.1.7 Fiscal policy

  2.1.8 Monetary policy

  2.1.9 Banking system

 2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents

  2.2.1 Trade agreements are signed and impacts

  2.2.2 Newly promulgated legal documents and decrees

 2.3 Operation of investment channels

  2.3.1 Bonds

  2.3.2 Stocks

  2.3.3 Commodity market

 2.4 M&A activity

 2.5 Risk and forecast

  2.5.1 Risk

  2.5.2 Forecast

 

List of figures

Figure 1: Asian and ASEAN economic growth, 2016 – 2024f

Figure 2: Forecast of economic growth of some countries in Asia, 2020

Figure 3: USD index, 1/2015 – 12/2019

Figure 4: USD/EUR and USD/JPY, 2016 – 2019

Figure 5: USD/CNY exchange rate, 2016 – 2019

Figure 6: World trade, 2011 – 2018

Figure 7: World import-export values by region, 2018

Figure 8: Top 10 largest commodity exporters, 2018

Figure 9: Top 10 largest importing countries, 2018

Figure 10: World gold price movements, 1/2016 – 12/2019

Figure 11: World crude oil price, 2011 – 2019

Figure 12: GDP growth rate by quarter, 2016 – 2019

Figure 13: GDP structure at current prices, 2019

Figure 14: Output value of agriculture, forestry and fishery in (at constant prices in 2010), 2016 – 2019

Figure 15: Industrial production index and Purchasing managers, 1/2018 – 12/2019

 

Figure 16: Industrial production index and Purchasing managers, 2012 – 2019

Figure 17: Total retail sales of consumer goods and services, 2016-2019

Figure 18: Growth of total retail sales of consumer goods

and services, 2011 – 2019

Figure 19: Growth rate of social investment capital in 2016-2019 compared to the last year (at current prices)

 

Figure 20: Foreign direct investment in 2012 – 2019

Figure 21: Goods import and export, 2013 – 2019

Figure 22: Monthly CPI fluctuation, 1/2015 – 12/2019

Figure 23: Total State budget revenue, 2019

Figure 24: Total state budget expenditure, 2019

Figure 25: Vietnam’s debt situation, 2012-2019

Figure 26: Plan to allocate government loans in 2020

Figure 27: VND/USD exchange rate, 1/2013 – 12/2019

Figure 28: Total asset structure of financial institutions in Vietnam, 2018

Figure 29: Proportion of capital supply to the economy from the capital market and the CI system (calculated on nominal values), 2012-2018

Figure 30: Targets on business results of credit institutions, 2017 – 2018

 

Figure 31: Marginal interest income ratio (NIM), 2012-2019f

Figure 32: Interbank interest rates, 2016-2019

Figure 33: Credit growth in the first 9 months, 2014-2019

Figure 34: Credit ratio to mobilized capital (LDR), August 2016 – 9/2019

Figure 35: NPL to credit outstanding balance, 2010 – 2018e

Figure 36: Proportion of credit risk provision/bad debt, 2012-2018e

Figure 37: Minimum capital adequacy ratio, 2012-2018e

Figure 38: Winning value of bonds over months, January 2017 – 12/019

Figure 39: Market share of outstanding bonds, 2019

Figure 40: The structure of winning Government bonds by term, 2019

Figure 41: Bond yield volatility, 2016 – June 2019

Figure 42: Secondary bond market, 1/2017 – 12/2019

Figure 43: Corporate bonds issued, 2010 – 2018

Figure 44: Value structure of corporate bonds issued by term, 2018

Figure 45: Scale structure of corporate bond issuance by field, 2019

Figure 46: Volume and value of stock transactions on HNX, 2016-2019

Figure 47: Volume and value of stock transactions on HOSE, 2016-2019

Figure 48: Movements of stock groups in the month, 2019

Figure 49: Transactions of foreign investors (foreign investors) on the HSX and HNX, 9/2018 –12/2019

 

Figure 50: Domestic gold price movements, September 2016 – 12/2019

Figure 51: Price movements of gasoline, 1/2016 – 12/2019

Figure 52: Value of M&A deals, 2010-2019

Figure 53: M&A structure by industry, 2018e

Figure 54: Number of equitized enterprises, 2011 – 2019

 

List of tables

Table 1: Forecast of world economic growth (%), 1/2020

Table 2: Most imported goods, 2019

Table 3: Most exported goods, 2019

Table 4: Increase/decrease in CPI of goods and services, 2019

Table 5: Capital adequacy of the financial system (%), 2018

Table 6: The situation of bank restructuring

Table 7:Roadmap for tariff elimination by certain sectors/products when joining EVFTA

Table 8: The process of implementing agreements in the group of free trade agreements (FTA)

Table 9: Roadmap for reducing the ratio of short-term capital to medium and long-term loans according toCircular 06 and Circular 19

Table 10: Regulations on the required reserve ratio, 2018