Report on Vietnam’s electricity industry Q2/2022
Electricity prices in the competitive market increased sharply in the first 4 months of the year and gradually decreased from May.
The reason is due to a sharp increase in hydropower output due to unusual rains in May and June, especially in the North region right at the peak of the dry season. Water flow to the lake increased sharply, causing Hoa hydroelectric power plants. Binh, Son La, Tuyen Quang must increase blowdown even before the rainy season.
Coal weight: In 6M/2022, domestic coal production reached 26.3 million tons, a slight increase compared to the same period in 2021.
Vietnam is promoting domestic coal production to meet the needs of the people due to high coal prices, and Vietnam restricts imports.
Hydropower: Unusual rains in May and June, especially in the North, right during the peak of the dry season, caused a sharp increase in hydropower output. Accordingly, in 6M/2022, hydropower mobilized 41.6 billion kWh, a sharp increase compared to the same period in 2021.
Renewable energy: The main wind season of wind power in both the central and southern regions falls from November to March, in addition, the central region, especially the Quang Binh – Quang Tri area, has a more even wind volume in May – August with the phenomenon of southwesterly winds with an average of 5-7m/s at an altitude of 100m.
It is expected that in the central region, the wind will gradually improve from the end of Q3 due to the onset of storms and tropical cyclones and Q4 due to the influence of the northeast monsoon.
Forecast:
Hydropower is expected to continue its upward momentum: According to IRI, the possibility of La Nina happening may weaken in T7 and T8 and become strong again from T9 onwards but with a probability of only around 60%. However, this is also a fairly high rate in this year’s rainy season, which can cause a lot of rain in the central western Pacific region including Vietnam. The sea surface temperature in the Western Pacific Ocean around Indonesia and Vietnam is about 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the average for many years, causing a lot of water evaporation, and at the same time, the low pressure trough from China pulls down to the North causing thunderstorms. in the pull down to Vietnam right in the dry season.
