According to the April 2018 report, the International Monetary (IMF) has revised its forecast for world economic growth for 2018 and 2019. Accordingly, global economic growth will reach 3.9% in 2018 and 2019, that is similar to forecast updated in April of 2018. Developed economies are forecast to grow at 2.4% in 2018, decrease 0.1% point compared to the report in April 2018.
In the first 9 months of 2018, GDP is estimated at 3,685.1 million billion dong, up 6.98% compared to the same period last year – the highest increase of 9 months since 2011 onwards.The largest contribution to the country’s GDP in the first 9 months of 2018 is still the service sector with the proportion of 42.54%. Second is industry with 33.49%, with growth mainly from processing and manufacturing industries with a 12.9% increase, the highest increase in the last 7 years. In the first 9 months of 2018, the industrial production index increased by 10.6% over the same period last year (Q1: increased by 12.7%; Q2: increased by 8.2%; Q3: increased by 10.7%) reached the highest growth rate since 2012.
The total import-export turnover of the whole country in the first 9 months of 2018 reached 352.6 billion USD, an increase of 13.7% compared to the same period in 2017. In the first 9 months of 2018, the trade balance of trade surplus reached a record of 6.32 billion USD. The trade balance of FDI enterprises in the first 9 months of 2018 surpluses to 22.8 billion USD, while the domestic enterprises’ deficit is 16.4 billion USD. Vietnam’s import and export in the first 9 months of 2018 still depends heavily on FDI inflows.
In the first 9 months of 2018, credit was estimated to increase by 9.52% (the same period in 2017 increased by 11.02%). The target of 17% growth is assessed as an appropriate indicator to both achieve growth and ensure inflation control in 2018.
1. World economy
1.1 Economic growth
1.2 Commodity market
2. Vietnam economy
2.1 Economic growth
2.1.5 Import and export
2.1.7 Monetary policy
2.1.8 Fiscal policy
2.1.9 Banking system
2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents
2.2.1 Agreed trade agreements and impacts
2.2.2 New issued legal documents and decrees
2.3 Operation of investment channels
2.3.3 Commodity market
2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions
2.5 Risks and Forecasts
Figure 1: Global economy growth, 2011-2018f
Table 1: Forecasts for world economy growth (%), 7/2018