Macroeconomic 

According to the April 2018 report, the International Monetary (IMF) has revised its forecast for world economic growth for 2018 and 2019. Accordingly, global economic growth will reach 3.9% in 2018 and 2019, that is similar to forecast updated in April of 2018. Developed economies are forecast to grow at 2.4% in 2018, decrease 0.1% point compared to the report in April 2018.

In the first 9 months of 2018, GDP is estimated at 3,685.1 million billion dong, up 6.98% compared to the same period last year – the highest increase of 9 months since 2011 onwards.The largest contribution to the country’s GDP in the first 9 months of 2018 is still the service sector with the proportion of 42.54%. Second is industry with 33.49%, with growth mainly from processing and manufacturing industries with a 12.9% increase, the highest increase in the last 7 years. In the first 9 months of 2018, the industrial production index increased by 10.6% over the same period last year (Q1: increased by 12.7%; Q2: increased by 8.2%; Q3: increased by 10.7%) reached the highest growth rate since 2012.

The total import-export turnover of the whole country in the first 9 months of 2018 reached 352.6 billion USD, an increase of 13.7% compared to the same period in 2017. In the first 9 months of 2018, the trade balance of trade surplus reached a record of 6.32 billion USD. The trade balance of FDI enterprises in the first 9 months of 2018 surpluses to 22.8 billion USD, while the domestic enterprises’ deficit is 16.4 billion USD. Vietnam’s import and export in the first 9 months of 2018 still depends heavily on FDI inflows.

In the first 9 months of 2018, credit was estimated to increase by 9.52% (the same period in 2017 increased by 11.02%). The target of 17% growth is assessed as an appropriate indicator to both achieve growth and ensure inflation control in 2018.

Report Summary
1. World economy
1.1 Economic growth
1.2 Commodity market
2. Vietnam economy
2.1 Economic growth
2.1.1 GDP
2.1.2 Production
2.1.3 Consumption
2.1.4 Investment
2.1.5 Import and export
2.1.6 CPI
2.1.7 Monetary policy
2.1.8 Fiscal policy
2.1.9 Banking system
2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents
2.2.1 Agreed trade agreements and impacts
2.2.2 New issued legal documents and decrees
2.3 Operation of investment channels
2.3.1 Bonds
2.3.2 Shares
2.3.3 Commodity market
2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions
2.5 Risks and Forecasts
2.5.1 Risks
2.5.2 Forecasts

Figure 1: Global economy growth, 2011-2018f
Figure 2: ASEAN economy growth, 2013 – 2019F
Figure 3: GDP of ASEAN countries, 2017
Figure 4: USD/EUR and USD/JPY exchange rates, 2016 – 9/2018
Figure 5: USD/CNY exchange rate, 2016 – 9/2018
Figure 6: Global trade, 2011 – 6M/2018
Figure 7: Import and export value of the world by regions, 6M/2018
Figure 8: Top 10 commodity exporters of the world, 6M/2018
Figure 9: Top 10 commodity importers of the world, 6M/2018
Figure 10: World gold prices, 10/2015 – 09/2018
Figure 11: World crude oil price, 2011 – 9/2018
Figure 12: GDP growth rate by quarters, 2015-Q3/2018
Figure 13: GDP at current prices and GDP per capita, 2013-9T/2018
Figure 14: GDP structure by current prices , 9M/2018e
Figure 15: Contribution to the growth of the economic sectors in the first six months, 2016-2018
Figure 16: Agriculture, forestry, and fishery production value in the first 9 months (compared prices in 2010), 2015-2018
Figure 17: Index-Industry Products and Purchasing Managers’ Index, 7/2015 – 9/2018
Figure 18: Growth of industries in the first 9 months, 2015-2018
Figure 19: Growth in total retail sales of commodity and consuming services, 2011-9M/2018
Figure 20: Retail sales of commodity, 2011 – 9M/2018
Figure 21: Consumer Confidence Index, 2014 – Q2/2018
Figure 22: The production index of processing and manufacturing industry, 2012 – 9M/2018
Figure 23: Rate of development of social investment capital implemented increase by current prices, 2013-2018
Figure 24: Structure of social investment capital, 9M/2018
Figure 25: Allocation of implementing capital in the central area, 9M/2018
Figure 26: Enterprise situation in the first 9 months, 2015 – 2018e
Figure 27: Foreign direct investment, 2014-Q3/2018
Figure 28: FDI attraction by sectors, 9M/2018
Figure 29: Commodity export-import, 2015 – 9M/2018
Figure 30: Contribution of FDI to import and export, 9M/2018e
Figure 31: The most exported commodity, 9M/2018
Figure 32: Structure of exported commodity groups, 9M/2018
Figure 33: Main export markets of Vietnam, 9M/2018
Figure 34: Structure of imported commodity group, 9M/2018
Figure 35: The most imported commodity, 9M/2018
Figure 36: Main import markets of Vietnam, 9M/2018
Figure 37: Monthly CPI fluctuation, 2015 – 9/2018
Figure 38: Total payment methods, 2013- 7M/2018
Figure 39: VND/USD exchange rate, 2013-9/2018
Figure 40: State budget revenues, 9M/2018
Figure 41: State budget expenditures, 9M/2018
Figure 42: Debt situation in Vietnam, 2011 – 2017
Figure 43: Allocation of State budget, 2018
Figure 44: Proportion of capital supply for the economy from the capital market and the system of credit institutions, 2012-2017
Figure 45: Profitability of credit institutions system, 2012-2017
Figure 46: Evaluation of ROA, ROE of the credit institutions system in Vietnam compared to some countries, 2017
Figure 47: Net interest margin (NIM), 2012-2017
Figure 48: Lending interest rates and mobilizing interest rates, 2012-9M/2018
Figure 49: Interbank interest rates, 1/2016-9/2018
Figure 50: Capital mobilization by currency, 2015-9M/2018
Figure 51: The rate of credit extension compared to mobilized capital,
8/2016-7/2018
Figure 52: Credit growth in the first 9 months, 2013-2018e
Figure 53: Market share of credit, 2017
Figure 54: Non-performing loan ratio in credit, 2010 – 2017e
Figure 55: Ratio of credit loss provision/bad debt, 2012-2017e
Figure 56: Minimum Capital Adequacy Ratio, 2012-2017e
Figure 57: Vietnam trade integration process from 1995 to present
Figure 58: The winning value of bonds through the months, 1/2017-9/2018
Figure 59: Bond market share in circulation, 8/2018
Figure 60: Bond structure by maturity, 8M/2018
Figure 61: Volatility of bond yields, 2016-8/2018
Figure 62: Secondary bond market, 2016-9/2018
Figure 63: Value of bonds issued by corporation, 2010 – 2017e
Figure 64: Trading volume and value on HOSE, 1/2016 – 9/2018
Figure 65: Trading volume and value on HNX, 1/2016 – 9/2018
Figure 66: Movements of stocks over the months, 07/2018 – 09/2018
Figure 67: Capitalization size of VNINDEX and HNX, 1/2017- 9/2018
Figure 68: Foreign net transaction value, 2013-9M/2018
Figure 69: Gold prices in Vietnam, 9/2017 – 9/2018
Figure 70: Petrol price movement, 1/2016 – 9/2018
Figure 71: The number and value of M & A deals, 2006 – 6M/2018e
Figure 72: Structure of M&A by industries, 2016-6M/2018
Figure 73: Number of equitized enterprises, 2011 – 9M/2018 

Table 1: Forecasts for world economy growth (%), 7/2018
Table 2: Monthly growth in world commodity prices, 9M/2018 (%)
Table 3: Regulations on the current compulsory reserve ratio
Table 4: Some indicators of the financial system in Vietnam, 2017
Table 5: Situation of banking restructuring
Table 6: Execution process of the agreements in the FTA group
Table 7: Foreign capital flows in some Countries, 9M/2018