VIETNAM MACROECONOMIC

According to the updated report in April 2019, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted that the World economic growth rate would drop to the lowest level since the economic crisis in the period of 2008 – 2009. Accordingly, the world economy was forecasted to grow by 3,3% in 2019 and 3,6% in 2020, the 2019 growth rate would decrease 0,2 percentage point compared to the January 2019 forecast. In Q1/2019, USD price tended to happen closely to the forecast in the end of last year and quite similar to the same moment of 2018. USD fluctuated continuously in Q1/2019 but it showed the cooling down trend compared to QIV/2018 and became more stable.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q1/2019 was estimated to increase by 6,79% compared to the same period of the previous year, despite lower than the growth rate of Q1/2018, it was higher than the growth rate of Q1/2016, Q1/2017. The consumer price index (CPI) in the first 3 months of 2019 witnessed many big changes. CPI after rising sharply in the first 2 months of 2019, decreased in 3/2019.

The total import-export turnover of the whole country in Q1/2019 increased by 6.6% compared to the same period last year. In Q1/2019, the trade balance continued to record a trade surplus of 1.41 billion USD. Vietnam’s import and export still depends heavily on FDI inflows. Vietnam’s participation in free trade agreements in the past such as AEC, CPTPP, EVFTA … will be an opportunity to boost export activities. VIRAC expects Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2019 to reach 7.0%. However, it is still challenging to achieve the target set in 2019.

Abbreviations
Report Summary
1. World economy
1.1 Economic growth
1.2 Commodity market
2. Vietnam economy
2.1 Economic growth
2.1.1 GDP
2.1.2 Production
2.1.3 Consumption
2.1.4 Investment
2.1.5 Import and export
2.1.6 CPI
2.1.7 Monetary policy
2.1.8 Fiscal policy
2.1.9 Banking system
2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents
2.2.1 Agreed trade agreements and impacts
2.2.2 New issued legal documents and decrees
2.3 Operation of investment channels
2.3.1 Bonds
2.3.2 Shares
2.3.3 Commodity market
2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions
2.5 Risks and Forecasts
2.5.1 Risks
2.5.2 Forecasts

List of figures
Figure 1: Asia economy growth, 2013 – 2020F
Figure 2: GDP of ASEAN countries, 2018
Figure 3: USD index, 1/2015 – 12/2018
Figure 4: USD/EUR and USD/JPY exchange rates, 1/2016 – 3/2019
Figure 5: USD/CNY exchange rate, 1/2016 – 3/2019
Figure 6: Global trade, 2011 – 2018
Figure 7: Import and export value of the world by regions, 2018
Figure 8: Top 10 commodity exporters of the world, 2018
Figure 9: Top 10 commodity importers of the world, 2018
Figure 10: World gold prices, 1/2016 – 3/2019
Figure 11: World crude oil price, 1/2011 – 3/2019
Figure 12: GDP growth rate by quarters, 2015-2019
Figure 13: GDP at current prices and GDP per capita, 2013-2018
Figure 14: GDP structure by current prices, Q1/2019
Figure 15: Economy growth rates by regions in the first quarter, 2016 – 2019
Figure 16: The value of agricultural, forestry and fishery production in the first quarter (at constant prices in 2010), 2016 – 2019
Figure 17: Index-Industry Products and Purchasing Managers’ Index by months, 1/2018-3/2019
Figure 18: Growth of industries, 2016 – 2019
Figure 19: Growth in total retail sales of commodity and consuming services, 2011-Q1/2019
Figure 20: Retail sales of commodity, 2010 – Q1/2019
Figure 21: Consumer Confidence Index, Q1/2014 – Q4/2018
Figure 22: The production index of processing and manufacturing industry, 2012 – Q1/2019
Figure 23: Rate of development of social investment capital implemented , 2017 – 2019
Figure 24: Structure of social investment capital, Q1/2019
Figure 25: Allocation of implementing capital in the central area, Q1/2019
Figure 26: Enterprise situation , 2015 – 2019
Figure 27: FDI capital, 2016-2019
Figure 28: FDI attraction by sectors, Q1/2019
Figure 29: Contribution of FDI to import and export, Q1/2019
Figure 30: Commodity export-import, 2011 – Q1/2019
Figure 31: The most exported commodity, Q1/2019
Figure 32: Structure of exported commodity groups, Q1/2019
Figure 33: Main export markets of Vietnam, Q1/2019
Figure 34: Structure of imported commodity group, Q1/2019
Figure 35: The most imported commodity, Q1/2019
Figure 36: Main import markets of Vietnam, Q1/2019
Figure 37: Monthly CPI fluctuation, 1/2015 – 3/2019
Figure 38: Total payment methods, 2014-1/2019
Figure 39: VND/USD exchange rate, 1/2013-3/2018
Figure 40: State budget revenues, Q1/2019
Figure 41: State budget expenditures, Q1/2019
Figure 42: Allocation of State budget, 2018
Figure 43: Debt situation in Vietnam, 2012 – 2018
Figure 44: Structure of total assets of financial institutions in Vietnam, 2018
Figure 45: Proportion of capital supply for the economy from the capital market and the system of credit institutions (by nominal value), 2012-2018
Figure 46: Business target of Credit Bodies, 2017 – 2018
Figure 47: Net Interest Margin (NIM), 2012-2019f
Figure 48: Average interest rates, 2012 – 3M/2019
Figure 49: Interbank interest rates, 1/2016-3/2019
Figure 50: Capital mobilization by currency, 2015-2018
Figure 51: The rate of credit extension compared to mobilized capital (LDR), 8/2016-1/2019
Figure 52: Credit growth in the first 3 months, 2013-2019
Figure 53: Non-performing loan ratio in credit, 2010 – 2018e
Figure 54: Ratio of credit loss provision/bad debt, 2012-2018e
Figure 55: Minimum Capital Adequacy Ratio, 2012-2018e
Figure 56: The winning value of bonds through the months , 1/2017- 3/2019
Figure 57: Bond market share in circulation, 3M/2019
Figure 58: Bond structure by maturity, Q1/2019
Figure 59: Volatility of bond yields, 2016-3/2019
Figure 60: Secondary bond market, 1/2017-3/2019
Figure 61: Value of bonds issued by corporation, 2010 – 2018
Figure 62: Structure of scale of bond issued by cooperation by regions, 2018
Figure 63: Structure of value of bonds issued by corporation, 2018
Figure 64: Trading volume and value on HNX, 1/2017 – 3/2019
Figure 65: Trading volume and value on HOSE, 1/2017 – 3/2019
Figure 66: Movements of stocks over the months, 3/2019
Figure 67: Capitalization size of VNINDEX and HNX, 1/2017- 3/2019
Figure 68: Foreign net transaction value, 2013-Q1/2019
Figure 69: Gold prices in Vietnam, 9/2016 – 3/2019
Figure 70: Petrol price movement, 1/2016 – 3/2019
Figure 71: The number and value of M & A deals, 2006 – 2018e
Figure 72: Structure of M&A by industries, 2018e
Figure 73: Number of equitized enterprises, 2011 – 2018e

List of tables
Table 1: Forecast of world economic growth (%), 4/2019
Table 2: Global monthly commodity price growth, Q1/2019 (%)
Table 3: Regulations on the current compulsory reserve ratio, 2018
Table 4: Capital adequacy level of the financial systems(%), 2018
Table 5: Situation of banking restructuring
Table 6: Impacts of CPTPP and TPP on Vietnam Economy until 2030 (%)
Table 7: Execution process of the agreements in the FTA group
Table 8: Short – term capital rates for mid and long – term loans route according to Circulars 06 and 19
Table 9: The volume of bonds issued and the plan for issuance in 2019
Table 10: Statistics of some bonds issued by credit institutions in 2018