Fertilizer market continued to encounter oversupply in the period 2014-2015, nutrient supply by component is estimated to increase 4.03% while demand went up just 2.04%. The oversupply within the fertilizer industry and other exogenous factors affecting the global supply from 2014 until now are the lack of natural gas supply, the increase in volatility associated to trade measures and the sharp decline in oil prices.

Fertilizer prices decreased over years, mainly caused by the oversupply and the drop in prices of raw materials.

In Vietnam, players in the fertilizer industry are classified by business forms, namely Manufacturing Enterprises (produce mainly Urea, Phosphate, NPK and DAP), Import and Export Enterprises (import 100% of Kali and SA) and Trading Enterprises.

Average supply always exceeds 148% compared with demand. Domestic fertilizer production focused on single fertilizers. NPK and DAP are the only mixed fertilizers produced but the quality standard is still not satisfied yet, especially DAP. NPK accounts for over 40% of total production volume, followed by Urea, Phosphate and other mized fertilizers. Meanwhile, Potash and SA are nearly impossible to produce domestically, therefore 100% of which has to be imported.

Fertilizer consumption tends to drop over years due to the effects of agricultural products’ export price, the decrease in arable land and the negative impact of weather. Fertilizer import fluctuated continuously through years due to the impacts of domestic supply sources as well as the import tax policies of Vietnam and major import markets.

Export has continuously dropped since 2012, caused by the competition with Chinese fertilizers in Korea, Cambodia, etc. and the effect of El Nino on the countries in the region. Although following the global price trend, the increase and decrease rates of domestic price are always lower than those of the world. Presently, the technology in Vietnam is very various, ranging from old-fashioned to modern ones. In which, NPK is the easieast fertilizer to produce, therefore its production technology is the most various.

Fertilizer Industry is in saturation state, products of domestic companies have an intense competition with imported ones. Meanwhile, fertilizer demand tends to drop, leading to a downward pressure on prices in the period 2016 – 2020f.

Executive Summary 4
1.      Business Environment 6
1.1.Macroeconomics 6

Figure 1. CNY/VND Rate, 2014 – H1/2016

Figure 2. GDP & CPI, 2010 – 2015

Figure 3. Foreign Exchange Reserve

Figure 4. VND/USD Exchange Rate, 2010 – 2015

 

 
1.2.Legal Barriers 9
1.3.Trade Agreements 14
Figure 5. Vietnam Integration Process from 1995 until now  
2.      Industry Performance 17
2.1.Global Fertilizer Market 17
2.1.1.      Supply – Demand 18
Figure 6. Fertilizer Demand by Nutrients and Nutrients Supply, 2012 – 2015e  
2.1.2.      Import – Export 19

Figure 7. Export

Figure 8. Import

Figure 9. Export structure by volume, 2014

Figure 10. Import structure by volume, 2014

 

2.1.3.      Price Movement

 

21
Figure 11. Price movement of main fertilizers, 2010 – H1/2016  
2.1.4.      Fertilizer Production and Consumption in typical countries 22
2.2.Vietnam Fertilizer Situation 24
2.2.1.      Vietnam Fertilizer Background 25
2.2.2.      Definition and Classification 26

Figure 12. Based on the amount of necessary nutrient components

Figure 13. Based on origin

Figure 14. Structure of major fertilizers, 2014

Table 1. Definition and Classification of some main fertilizers.

 

 
2.2.3.      Market Scale and Feature 29

Figure 15. Revenue growth rate by year, 2014 – 2015

Figure 16. Market share by revenue

Figure 17. Structure of Rice Area by Crop

Figure 18. Paddy Field Area

Figure 19. Rice Production By Crop

 
2.2.4.      Major activities 31
2.2.5.      Inputs 34

Figure 20. Coal reserve by area

Figure 21. Coal Consumption by industry

Figure 22. Coal supply and demand forecast, 2015-2030

Figure 23. Ore reserve exploration by type, 2014

Figure 24. Ore demand forecast for fertilizer production, 2015-2030

Figure 25. Natural Gas Consumption By Sectors

 
2.2.6.      Production Technology 37
Table 2. NPK production technology  
2.2.7.      Supply – Demand 39

Figure 26. Supply – Demand, 2010 – H1/2016e

Figure 27. Production – Consumption, 2010 – H1/2016e

Figure 28. Domestic Production, 2010 – H1/2016e

Figure 29. Demand and Real consumption, 2010 – /2016e

Table 3. Production capacity of large domestic enterprises, H1/2016

Table 4. Capacity of some Vietnam’s fertilizer plants

 
2.2.8.      Import – Export 44

Figure 30. Fertilizer import, 2010 – H1/2016e

Figure 31. Structure of import volume by countries, 2014 – 2015

Figure 32. Fertilizer Import, H1/2016

Figure 33. Import Structure by countries, H1/2016

Figure 34. Fertilizer export, 2010 – H1/2016e

Figure 35. Structure of export volume by country, 2014 – 2015

Figure 36. Fertilizer export by countries, H1/2015 – H1/2016

 
2.2.9.      Inventories 50
Figure 37. Inventories, 2010 – 2015e  
2.2.10.  Price Movement 51
Figure 38. Fertilizer Price movement, 2014 – H1/2016VND  
2.2.11.  Transportation and Distribution 53
Figure 39. Major sea ports in Vietnam, 2015  
2.3.Industry Risks 54

Figure 40. Salt – marsh, H1/2016

Figure 41. Oil, sulfur and coal price movement, 2011 – H1/2016

Figure 42. Crop Structure, 2014

Figure 43. Area of paddy fields over years

Figure 44. Fertilizer demand by plant

Figure 45. Agricultural export, 2014 – 2015

Table 5. 5 forces analysis

 
2.4.Planning and Forecast 61
2.4.1.      Planning 62
Table 6. fertilizer production system plan  
2.4.2.      Global Forecast 65
Figure 46. Forecast world demand for fertilizer nutrients – world supply of nutrients, 2014 – 2018f  
2.4.3.      Domestic Forecast 67
Figure 47. Supply – Demand Forecast, 2016f – 2020f  
3.      Enterprise Analysis 69
3.1.Top 10 Enterprises 70
Table 7. Top 10 enterprises with largest revenues in 2014 (Group of listed enterprises)  
3.2.Business Performance Indicator Group 78

Figure 48. Net revenues, 2014 – 2015

Figure 49. EBITDA, 2015

Figure 50. Financial Cost, 2014 – 2015

Figure 51. Sales Cost, 2014 – 2015

Figure 52. Enterprise Management Cost, 2014 – 2015

 
3.3.Financial Indicator Group 84

Figure 53. Total Assets, 2014 – 2015

Figure 54. Inventory turnover, 2015

Figure 55. Receivables turnover, 2015

Figure 56. Profitability indicators, 2015

 
3.4.Cash Flow Indicator Group 89

Table 8. Net Cash Flow from Operations of some Vietnamese Fertilizer Enterprises

Table 9. Net Cash Flow from Investments of some Vietnamese Fertilizer Enterprises

Table 10. Net Cash Flow from Financing of some Vietnamese Fertilizer Enterprises

 
4.      Appendix of Financial Statements 93

– Phu My Fertilizer
– Binh Dien Fertilizer
– Petrovietnam Camau Fertilizer
– Lam Thao Fertilizer
– PVFCCo South East
– Quang Binh Import and Export
– PVFCCo Southern West
– PVFCCo Central
– The Southern Fertilizer
– PVFCCo North