VIETNAM AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY

The global automobile market in 2017 continued to grow with the total produced cars of 97.3 million units, an increase of 2.45% over 2016. The world’s automobile production workshops are still located in three traditional areas with the earliest automobile industry which are North America, Western Europe and East Asia.

Global automobile consumption in 2017 reached 96.8 million units, up 3.1% compared to 2016. Global automobile export in 2017 continued to sharply decline and plunged the most since 2012, when the total export value of automobile market was only $ 629.49 billion.

The automobile industry in Vietnam today is largely stopped at simple assembly. The average localization rate is around 10%. Almost all of domestic components are in the form of simple technology with low value and mainly used for trucks and passenger cars. The newly promulgated Decree 116/2017/ND-CP on Production, Assembly and Trading of Automobiles is expected to create new opportunities in the development of production activities of automobile companies right in Vietnam instead of yielding to imported cars. In the first 9 months of 2018, the total number of assembled cars nationwide reached 199.7 thousand vehicles, up 11.04% compared to the same period in 2017.

The market entry of VinFast is expected to boost the domestic automobile manufacturing, assembly industry and help increase the localization rate, reduce dependence on imported cars. According to the Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers Association (VAMA), in the first 9 months of 2018, the whole domestic automobile market achieved sales of 186.42 thousand vehicles (including trucks, passenger cars/ bus and some other vehicles), increased slightly by 1% compared to the same period in 2017.

In the first 9 months of 2018, we can see that the structure of vehicle consumption by region of Vietnam has not changed much compared to the end of 2017. In the first half of 2018, Truong Hai continued to hold the largest market share with 38.2% of the total number of cars consumed in the market. The car ownership rate of over 1,000 people in Vietnam in 2017 is estimated to reach 30 cars, which is still quite low compared to other countries in the region and the world. In addition to policy, political and exchange risks, the industry is facing many challenges in terms of capital, technology, human resources, supporting industries, government policies, infrastructure and environmental pollution.

Abbreviation
Executive summary
1. Business environment
1.1 Macroeconomics
1.2 Legal barrier
1.3 Impact of free trade agreements
2. Industry overview
2.1 World automobile market
2.1.1 Spare parts
2.1.2 Production
2.1.3 Consumption
2.1.4 Import – export
2.1.5 Top typical countries
2.1.6 Top typical brands
2.2 Vietnam automobile market
2.2.1 Scale and characteristics
2.2.2 Industry value chain
2.2.3 Industry position
2.2.4 Spare parts
2.2.5 Production
2.2.6 Consumption
2.2.7 Import
2.2.8 Automobile prices
2.2.9 Distribution system
3. Risks and Challenges
4. Driving forces
5. Planning and forecast
6. Enterprises
Truong Hai Auto
Toyota Vietnam
Lexus Vietnam
Ford Vietnam
Honda Vietnam
Mercedes – Benz Vietnam
Hino Motor Vietnam
Isuzu Vietnam
Hino Motors                                                                                                             GM Vietnam

Figure 1: GDP growth by quarters, 2015 – Q3/2018
Figure 2: Monthly CPI fluctuations, 2015 – 9/2018
Figure 3: GDP per capita, 2013 – 2017
Figure 4: Consumer Confidence Index, 2014- Q2/ 2018
Figure 5: Lending interest rate and mobilizing interest rate, 2012-2017
Figure 6: VND/USD exchange rate, 2011 – 9/2018
Figure 7: Level of urbanization, 2010 – 2017
Figure 8: Disposable income and household expenditures, 2008 – 2017f
Figure 9: Production of cars in the world, 2010 – 2017
Figure 10: Structure of world production by vehicle, 2017
Figure 11: Production structure by region, 2016 – 2017
Figure 12: World car consumption by type, 2010 – 2017
Figure 13: Top 10 World’s best-selling cars ,  2017
Figure 14: Consumption of car in the world, 2013 – 2017
Figure 15: Car consumption of ASEAN Automotive Federation members (AAF), 2017
Figure 16: The number of vehicles used in the world, 2010 – 2015e
Figure 17: Structure of vehicle usage by area, 2015
Figure 18: Exporting cars in the world, 2010 – 2017e
Figure 19: Structure of automobile exports by country, 2017e
Figure 20: Import structure of cars by country, 2017e
Figure 21: Top 10 leading producers in the world, 2016
Figure 22: Top ten world’s most-priced cars published by Brand Finance, 2017
Figure 23: Number of businesses, 2010-2016
Figure 24: Number of employees, 2010-2016
Figure 25: Sales of automobile manufacturing and assembly, 2010 – 2016
Figure 26: Sales of automobile wholesaling and retailing, 2010 – 2016
Figure 27: Vehicle consumption structure by business, 9M/2018
Figure 28: Industry position of Vietnamese cars compared to the world by volume, 2017
Figure 29: Import of car accessories, 2010 – 9M/2018
Figure 30: Localization rate of some countries in the region, 2017
Figure 31: Import of auomobile spare parts by countries, 2016-9M/2018
Figure 32: Import structure of automobile spare parts, 9M/2018
Figure 33: Production and assembly of automobiles in Vietnam, 2010 – 9M/2018
Figure 34: Production output of THACO, 2010 – 2016
Figure 35: Production, assembly structure by vehicle type, 2011 – 9M/2018
Figure 36: Outlook of Viet Nam traffic, 2016
Figure 37: Automobile consumption in Vietnam, 2006-9M/2018
Figure 38: Consumption of cars by vehicle type, 1/2017 – 9/2018
Figure 39: Consumption output by car origin, 1/2017 – 9/2018
Figure 40: Trends of automobile industry development in some Southeast Asian countries, 2011 – 2016
Figure 41: Proportion of car ownership below 9 seats in some countries
in region, 2017
Figure 42: Number of cars per 100 households by urban and rural areas,
Figure 43: 2004 – 2016e
Figure 44: Top 10 best selling cars 9M/2018
Figure 45: Consumption structure of VAMA members by region , 9M/2016 – 9M/2018
Figure 46: Consumption vehicles of VAMA members by region, 9M/2018
Figure 47: Vehicle consumption structure by business, 9M/2017
Figure 48: Vehicle consumption structure by business, 9M/2018
Figure 49: Import of automobiles in complete units, 2011-9/2018
Figure 50: Import complete cars from some countries, 9M/2016 – 9M/2018
Figure 51: Top markets of  above 2 billions cars impored in Viet Nam, 2017
Figure 52: Vietnam Automobile prices comparing to other countries, 2017
Figure 53: Vehicle prices according to the cost structure of the consumer
Figure 54: Price movements of some major vehicles, 6/2014 – 9/2018
Figure 55: VND/USD exchange rate, 2011-9/2018
Figure 56: World crude oil price, 2011 – 9/2018
Figure 57: Structure by source of CO2 emission to the environment
Figure 58: Population pyramid, 2016
Figure 59: Outstanding consumer loans, 2012 – 2017
Figure 60: Structure of population by stratification (expenditure), 2013 – 2020f
Figure 61: Disposable income and household expenditures, 2012 – 2017f
Figure 62: Forecast of car consumption in Vietnam, 2016 – 2020f

Table 1: Regulation of maintenance of means of transport
Table 2: The draft import tax applies to automobile parts
Table 3: Roadmap to apply special consumption tax on cars
Table 4: Roadmap of WTO tariff reductions for imported complete cars and auto components
Table 5: AFTA tax rate
Table 6: Import structure of automobile components and accessories, 2017e
Table 7: Export structure of automobile components and accessries, 2017e
Table 8: Top the largest automobile consumption countries by volume, 2017
Table 9: Competitive Analysis between Truong Hai and Toyota Vietnam by the end of September 9/2018
Table 10: Top brands of above 2 billions cars impored in Viet Nam, 2017
Table 11: Special consumption tax by car segment, 2018
Table 12: Imported car prices from ASEAN before 1/1/2018, assuming an original price of 100
Table 13: Imported car prices from ASEAN after 1/1/2018, assuming an original price of 100
Table 14: Expected volume of domestic assembled vehicles compared to total domestic demand (%)
Table 15: Estimated vehicle output and growth rate of the year
Table 16: Expected to export complete vehicles and spare parts
Table 17: Rate of localization by value over years