For the first 6 months of 2016, the world’s economy continued to show the recovering trend although the rate was low and ununiform between regions and there were many uncertainties and vulnerability. However, big economies in the world all showed the positive recovering signs such as the improvement in America’s unemployment rate in May 2016, the increase in Chinese imports. Besides, the Japanese and European economies showed negative signs as it recovered slowly, export decreased and these regions continued to loose the monetary policies, indenting growth, inflation, and exports.
The the Brexit caused short-term shock to the global financial market as the global’s stock decreased by 5% on June 24th 2016, Pound and EUR depreciated strongly in relative to USD. In long-term, the exit of the UK from EU will have the negative impact to every country with close trade and investment relation with EU and increase the volatility in the global economy.
Vietnam’s economy for the first 6 months of 2016 showed many achievements, such as: Growth of the Vietnam’s economy for the first 6 months of 2016 was 5.52%, lower than 2015 due to the impact of natural condition but the growth momentum gradually improved; inflation remained at low level, CPI of 6 months increased compared to the same period; Exports continued to grow compared to 2015; FDI capital disbursement increased compared to the same period, consumption was still positive and ratail sales continued to grow well with main contribution coming from retail activities. However, the economy revealed some drawbacks such as the high public debt and budget deficit which even showed the increasing trend; solving bad debt was slow and incomprehensive; industrial production industry still struggled compared to the last year, etc.
About the activities of the financial and capital market for the first 6 months of 2016, there were some positive signs such as the potential growth in credit, stable liquidty, decreasing interest rate, exchange rates and foreign currency market was stable compared to the end of 2015. Governmental capital funding through bonds also showed the high result with total capital for the first 6 months equaled to 75% of the year’s plan, the stock market also showed positive trends compared to regional and world’s market. Besides, the State Bank of Vietnam also enacted policies supporting the operation of commercial banks through 3 circulars (no.6,7, and 8), hence positively affecting the firm’s ability to access capital.
The participation of Vietnam into FTAs, such as AEC, TPP, EVFTA, etc. in recent time will be the chance to incent the exports due to tariff reduction as well as taking advantages from supporting forces, attracting FDI from the outsides. However, domestic companies will have to face competition as well as strict technical barriers imposed by importing countries.
M&A activities occured actively in the first 6 months of 2016 with trades focused on retail, consumer’s, real estate, and banking. From the beginning of the year till the end of July 14th 2016, Vietnam had have 399 M&A with total value of up to 4.04 billion USD and average value of 11.9 million USD. Specifically, the real estate and retail segments witnessed many M&A projects with the involvement of foreign investors. The equitisation of state companies, the promoted disinventment of SCIC will be a positive element creating the enormous supply for M&A activities in the upcoming time.
Generally, economic indicators are all estimated to shift positively in the 2 last quarters of 2016 due to impacts from the world’s market as well as governing policies of the government, added by the crop element and economic agreements comming in to practice will be the driving force for the Vietnam’s economy to continue to grow in upcoming time.

Executive Summary 4
1.                  Global macroeconomic situation 5
1.1.           Economic growth 6

Figure 1. America’s economic growth

Figure 2. Japan’s economic growth, 2011-2016

Table 1. Forecast for the conomic growth in Europe, 2016 – 2017

Figure 3. Internal trade of ASEAN, 2015 – 6/2016

Figure 4. EUR/USD and JPY/USD fluctuations in the first 6 months of 2016

Figure 5. CNY/USD fluctuations in the first 6 months of 2016

Figure 6. Some foreign currencies’ situation before and after Brexit

Figure 7. Global trade from the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2016

Figure 8. Import market structure in the first quarter 2016 by region

Figure 9. Export market structure in the first quarter 2016 by region

Figure 10. Top 10 biggest exporting countries in the first quarter 2016

Figure 11. Top 10 biggest importing countries in the first quarter 2016

 
1.2.           Commodity market 13

Table 2. Price of global goods in 2016

Table 3. Expected price of global goods 2016

Figure 12. Global gold price movement, 11/2014 – 7/2016

Figure 13. Global crude oil price movements

 
2.                  Vietnam’s market 17
2.1.           Economic growth 17
2.1.1.     GDP 18

Figure 14. GDP growth by quarter, 2014 – Q2/2016

Figure 15. Nominal GDP, 2014 – Q2/2016

Figure 16. Nominal GDP structure

Figure 17. Average GDP per capita, 2001 – 2016e

 
2.1.2.     Production 20

Figure 18. The index of industrial production and Purchasing Managers’ Index

Figure 19. Agriculture, forestry, and fishery production value, 6 months/2015 – 6 months/2016

Figure 20. Retail growth

Figure 21. Total retail sales of consumer’s goods and services, excluding price factors (% over the same period)

 
2.1.3.     Consumption 23

Figure 22. Consumer Confidence index

Figure 23. Consumption and inventories of processing, manufacturing industries

 
2.1.4.     Investment 24

Figure 24. Growth of social investment in 6 months from 2011-2016 (%)

Figure 25. Social investment structure in 6 months of 2016

Figure 26. Social investment in 6 months from 2011 – 2016

Figure 27. Capital distribution in the central area

Figure 28. Business situation in 6 months from 2014-2016

Figure 29. FDI, 2013 – Q2/2016

Figure 30. FDI attraction in  6 months of 2016 by industries

 
2.1.5.     Import – Export 27

Figure 31. Export – Import by quarter 2014 – 2016

Figure 32. FDI contribution to export and import

Figure 33. Top 10 most exported goods in June 2016

Figure 34. Exports structure, first 6 months of 2016

Figure 35. Vietnam’s main exporting markets in first 6 months of 2016

Figure 36. Imports structure in the first 6 months of 2016

Figure 37. Top 10 most imported goods in first 6 months of 2016

Figure 38. Export market structure in first 6 months of 2016

 
2.1.6.     CPI 30

Figure 39. Monthly CPI fluctuation 2014 – 2016

Table 4. CPI in the first 6 months of 2016 by category

 
2.1.7.     Monetary policies 31

Figure 40. Total means of payment

Figure 41. VND/USD Exchange rates

Figure 42. Current requirements on required reserves

 
2.1.8.     Fiscal policies 32

Figure 43. National budget revenue in the first 6 months of 2016 (% over the same period)

Figure 44. National budget expense in the first 6 months of 2016 (% over the same period)

Figure 45. Vietnam’s public debt, 2011-2016

Figure 46. Weight of government’s debt and debts guaranteed by government 2011 – 2016

Figure 47. Paying public debt (% total budget revenue) 2011-2015

Figure 48. Public debt of some countries by 24/4/2016

Figure 49. Borrowing plan of the government 2016 (billion VND)

 
2.1.9.     Banking system 37

Figure 50. Credit growth, 2001-6/2016

Figure 51. Interbank interest rates, 1/2016 – 6/2016

Figure 52. The rate of credit extension out of capital mobilization, 6/2015 – 5/2016

Figure 53. Bad debt ratios of financial institutes, 2010 – 3/2016

Figure 54. Bad debt ratios by banking group, 2010-2014

Figure 55. Source structure to resolve bad debt of listed banks in 9 months/2015

Figure 56. Source structure to resolve bad debt of unlisted banks in 9 months/2015

Figure 57. Bad debt ratio in commercial and national banks, 2010- 9 months of 2015

Figure 58. The Basel adopting progess in some countries by the end of 2015

Table 5. The restructuring situation of banks

Figure 59. Operating results of the banking system, 2010-2015

Figure 60. Banking asset structure, 2015

 
2.2.           Trade agreements and legal documents 44
2.2.1.     Business method 45
2.2.2.     Newly issued legal documents 48
Table 6. Roadmap of applying special consumption taxes for automobiles  
2.3.           Activities of invesment channels 50
2.3.1.     Bonds 51

Figure 61. Primary bond market

Figure 62. Bond issuance structure in the primary market

Figure 63. Bond issuance term

Figure 64. Bond yields movements in the first 6 months of 2016

Figure 65. Secondary bond market

Figure 66. Bond trading by foreign investors

Figure 67. The value of corporate bonds issued, 2010 – 2016

 
2.3.2.     Stocks 55

Figure 68. The volume and value of transactions by month on HOSE

Figure 69. Stocks movements

Figure 70. VN-Index price fluctuations

Figure 71. Average value of transactions

Figure 72. The volume and value of transactions by month on HNX

Figure 73. HNX-Index price fluctuations

 
2.3.3.     Commodity market 57

Figure 74. Domestic gold price movements

Table 7. Gasoline price fluctuations, 2015 – 6/2016

Figure 75. Gasoline price fluctuations, 2015 – 6/2016

 
2.4.           M&A activities 59

Figure 76. The number and value of M&A deals, 2006 – 7/2016

Figure 77. Number of transactions and average transaction value in some countries, 2015

Figure 78. Number of state-owned enterprises equitized, 2011 – 5/2016

Figure 79. Equitization under managing units in the first 6 months of 2016

Figure 80. Capital mobilization, Q1/2016

 
2.5.           Risks and forecasts 64
2.5.1.     Risks 65
Figure 81. Salt – marsh situation, 4/2016  
2.5.2.     Forecasts 67