VIETNAM MACROECONOMIC INDUSTRY

According to the January 2018 report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its forecast for world economic growth for 2018 and 2019. Accordingly, global economic growth will reach 3.9% in 2018 and 2019, an increase of 0.2% over October 2017 updated forecast. Developed economies are forecast to grow at x.x% in 2018, an increase of 0.2% over the October 2017 forecast. Most of the major currencies have gained against the dollar. The USD Index, which measures the strength of the dollar against six other currencies by the end of March, fell by 3.04% over the end of 2017.

The domestic economic situation in the first quarter still keeps a positive trend from the end of 2017, gross domestic product in the quarter 1/2018 was estimated to increase x.xx% over the same period in 2017. GDP growth target of the Government in 2018 in the range 6.5-6.7% is cautious and based on positive results that achieved in 2017. In the first quarter of 2018, the manufacturing index for the whole industry rose 11.6% over the same period last year, much higher than the same period in recent years.

In the first 3 months of 2018, total newly registered capital, additional capital and capital contribution to purchase shares of foreign investors is USD xx billion, equal to 75.2% of the same period of 2017. The ratio of public debt/GDP in 2017 is estimated at xx.x%, lower than 63.7% at the end of 2016 due to positive economic growth along with synchronous solutions on budget restructuring and public debt. As forecast by the National Financial Supervisory Commission, balancing the state budget in 2018 will ensure the target (state budget deficit at xx% GDP) due to positive economic growth and oil prices remaining at the level high. Vietnam’s economic growth in 2018 is forecast to reach 6.5% – 6.7%. 

 

Abbreviations
Report Summary
1. World economy
1.1 Economic growth
1.2 Commodity market
2. Vietnam economy
2.1 Economic growth
2.1.1 GDP
2.1.2 Production
2.1.3 Consumption
2.1.4 Investment
2.1.5 Import and export
2.1.6 CPI
2.1.7 Monetary policy
2.1.8 Fiscal policy
2.1.9 Banking system
2.2 Trade agreements and legal documents
2.2.1 Agreed trade agreements and impacts
2.2.2 New issued legal documents and decrees
2.3 Operation of investment channels
2.3.1 Bonds
2.3.2 Shares
2.3.3 Commodity market
2.4 Mergers and Acquisitions
2.5 Risks and Forecasts
2.5.1 Risks
2.5.2 Forecasts

List of figures
Figure 1: Global economy growth, 2011-1/2018
Figure 2: ASEAN economy growth, 2013 – 2018F
Figure 3: GDP of ASEAN countries, 1970 – 2016
Figure 4: USD/EUR and USD/JPY exchange rates, 2016 – 3/2018
Figure 5: USD/CNY exchange rate, 2016 – 3/2018
Figure 6: Global trade, 2011 – 9M/2017
Figure 7: Import and export value of the world by regions, Q3/2017
Figure 8: Top 10 commodity exporters of the world, 9M/2017
Figure 9: Top 10 commodity importers of the world, 9M/2017
Figure 10: World gold prices, 10/2015 – 3/2018
Figure 11: World crude oil price, 2011 – 3/2018
Figure 12: GDP growth rate by quarters, 2015-Q1/2018
Figure 13: GDP at current prices and GDP per capita, 2013-Q1/2018
Figure 14: GDP structure by current prices, Q1/2018e
Figure 15: Contribution to the growth of the economic sectors in the firse quarter, 2016-2018
Figure 16: Index-Industry Products and Purchasing Managers’ Index, July/2015 –March/2018
Figure 17: Growth of industries in the first quarter, 2015-2018
Figure 18: Agriculture, forestry, and fishery production value (compared prices in 2010), 2015-2018
Figure 19: Growth in total retail sales of commodity and consuming services, 2011-Q1/2018
Figure 20: Retail sales of commodity, 2011 – Q1/2018
Figure 21: Consumer Confidence Index, 2014 – Q4/2017
Figure 22: The production index of processing and manufacturing industry, 2012 – Q1/2018
Figure 23: Rate of development of social investment capital implemented increase by current prices, 2013-2017
Figure 24: Structure of social investment captial, Q1/2018
Figure 25: Allocation of implementing capital in the central area, Q1/2018
Figure 26: Enterprise situation in the first three months, 2015 – 2018
Figure 27: FDI capital, 2015-Q1/2018
Figure 28: FDI attraction by sectors, Q1/2018
Figure 29: Contribution of FDI to import and export, Q1/2018e
Figure 30: Commodity export-import, 2015 – Q1/2018
Figure 31: The most exported commodity, Q1/2018
Figure 32: Structure of exported commodity groups, Q1/2018
Figure 33: Main export markets of Vietnam, Q1/2018
Figure 34: Structure of imported commodity group, Q1/2018
Figure 35: The most imported commodity, Q1/2017 – Q1/2018
Figure 36: Main import markets of Vietnam, Q1/2018
Figure 37: Monthly CPI fluctuation, 2014 – 3/2018
Figure 38: Total payment methods, 2013- 1/2018
Figure 39: VND/USD exchange rate, 2013-3/2018
Figure 40: State budget revenues, Q1/2018
Figure 41: State budget expenditures, Q1/2018
Figure 42: Debt situation in Vietnam, 2011 – 2017
Figure 43: Allocation of State budget, 2018
Figure 44: Proportion of capital supply for the economy from the capital market and the system of credit institutions, 2012-2017
Figure 45: Evaluation of ROA, ROE of the credit institutions system in Vietnam compared to some countries, 2017
Figure 46: Profitability of credit institutions system, 2012-2017
Figure 47: Net interest margin, 2012-2017
Figure 48: Lending interest rates and mobilizing interest rates, 2012-Q1/2018
Figure 49: Interbank interest rates, 1/2016-3/2018
Figure 50: Capital mobilization by currency, 2015-3/2018
Figure 51: The rate of credit extension compared to mobilized capital, Aug/2016-Mar/2018
Figure 52: Credit growth in the first quarter, 2013-2018e
Figure 53: Market share of credit, 2017
Figure 54: Non-performing loan ratio in credit, 2010 – 2017e
Figure 55: Ratio of credit loss provision/bad debt, 2012-2017e
Figure 56: Minimum Capital Adequacy Ratio, 2012-2017e
Figure 57: Bond market share in circulation, 3/2018
Figure 58: The winning value of bonds through the months, 12/2017-3/2018
Figure 59: Bond structure by maturity, Q1/2018
Figure 60: Volatility of bond yields, 2016-3/2018
Figure 61: Secondary bond market, 2016-Mar/2018
Figure 62: Value of bonds issued by corporation, 2010 – 2017e
Figure 63: Average transaction value, Jul/2016-Mar/2018
Figure 64: Trading volume and value on HOSE, 2016 – 3/2018
Figure 65: Trading volume and value on HNX, 2016 – 3/2018
Figure 66: Movements of stocks over the months, 12/2017-3/2018
Figure 67: Capitalization size of VNINDEX and HNX, 2/2017- 3/2018
Figure 68: Foreign net transaction value, 2013-Q1/2018
Figure 69: Gold prices in Vietnam, 9/2017 – 3/2018
Figure 70: Petrol price movement, 2016 – 3/2018
Figure 71: The number and value of M & A deals, 2006 – 3M/2018e
Figure 72: Structure of M&A by industries, 2016-3M/2018
Figure 73: Number of deals and average transaction value of some countries, 2T/2018
Figure 74: Number of equitized enterprises, 2011 – 2017e
Figure 75: Capital mobilization by IPO, 2012-Q1/2018
Figure 76: Some big IPO in 2018
List of tables
Table 1: Forecasts for world economy growth (%), 1/2018
Table 2: Monthly growth in world commodity prices, Q1/2018 (%)
Table 3: Regulations on the current compulsory reserve ratio
Table 4: Some indicators of the financial system in Vietnam, 2017
Table 5: Situation of banking restructuring
Table 6: Execution process of the agreements in the FTA group
Table 7: Foreign capital flows in some Countries, 3/2018