VIETNAM ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY

China and the United States are the two countries with the highest electricity consumption in the world in 2016. The average increase in electricity price in the world was 1.75% in the period 2011-2015. Since 2005, Asia has officially surpassed Europe and North America to become the world’s largest producer of electricity. Power consumption in the world continuously increased in the period 2006 – 2016e with double growth rate CAGR of 2.64%, since during this period, the global economy has continued to grow strongly.

Currently, EVN still has a monopoly on the segments of regulation, electricity wholesaling, transmission and distribution or retailing. The annually double growth of electricity supply was 10.3% in the period 2010-2017. Accumulated the first 3 months of 2018, the total volume of electricity supply reached xx.xx billion kWh, an increase of 11.2% over the same period in 2017. Electricity transmission is mainly from the North to the Central and to the South. The main sources of electricity are Hydroelectricity, Coal Thermoelectricity and Gas Thermoelectricity, accounting for 93.78% of the total power capacity in the first three months of 2018.

Import proportion of electricity has been gradually stabilizing over the years. The proportion of imported electricity in total electricity supply in the country has remained constantly from 1.3% to 2% in the period 2015-2018. In 2018, imported electricity output is forecast to reach x.xxx billion kWh, accounting for 1.33% of total electricity supply. Vietnam electricity loss has tended downward but remained high in 2017, electricity loss rate was 7.47%, exceeding 0.13% of the year’s plan (7.6%), however, it was still in high level.

Vietnam power demand has grown fast in the period from 2001 to 2017 with the estimated average growth of 11.3% per year and is forecast to continuously increase in the next 15 years. Electricity price in Vietnam is quite low compared to other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Power generation is the only segment with the participation of corporate outside EVN due to the specific requirements of capital investment. Therefore, the competitive electricity market in Vietnam will also start the first phase of this segment. The growth rate in the period 2017 – 2020f is forecast to reach 10.7%, in the period 2021-2025f and 2025-2030f would be 9.7% and 8.7%, respectively. Electricity demand is expected to continue growing at 10-11% per year in the coming years.

 

Abbreviations
Executive Summary
1. Business environment
1.1 Macroeconomic situation
1.2 Legal framework
1.3 Free Trade Agreements
2. Industry overview
2.1 Situation of global electricity industry
2.1.1 Demand and supply for electricity
2.1.2 Development trend of global electricity industry
2.1.3 Price movement
2.1.4 Situation of electricity industry in some Southeast Asia countries
2.2 Situation of Vietnam electricity industry
2.2.1 History of Vietnam electricity industry
2.2.2 Value chain of the industry
2.2.3 Input fuel
2.2.4 Electricity generation
2.2.5 Transmission and distribution
2.2.6 Electricity consumption
2.2.7 Electricity price
2.2.8 Structure of electricity industry
2.3 Issues in energy industries development
2.3.1 Existing
2.3.2 Challenges
2.3.3 Risks
2.3.4 The trend of foreign investment
2.4 Planning and forecasting
2.4.1 Planning
2.4.2 Forecasting
3. Business analysis
3.1 Typical companies of electricity industry
3.2 Business performance indicators
3.3 Financial indicators
3.4 Payment indicators
4. Appendix
4.1 Financial statements
4.2 Total capacity of national installed electricity system

Southern Power Corporation – EVNSPC
Ho Chi Minh Power Company – EVNHCMC
Hanoi Power Company – EVNHANOI
Central Power Corporation – EVNCPC
Hai Phong Thermal Power Joint Stock Company
Quang Ninh Thermal Power Joint Stock Company
Pha Lai Thermal Power Joint Stock Company
BOT Phy My 3 Power Company Limited
Mekong Energy Company

List of figures
Figure 1: Monthly CPI fluctuations, 2014 – 2017
Figure 2: GDP growth rate by quarter, 2015-2017
Figure 3: VND/USD exchange rates, 2013-2017
Figure 4: FDI attraction by industry, 2017
Figure 5: Contribution to electricity production and distribution in GDP, 2012 – 2017e
Figure 6: World electricity volume, 1985-2016
Figure 7: Structure of world electricity volume, 2016
Figure 8: Non-renewable electricity supply shares of the world, 1973
Figure 9: Non-renewable electricity supply shares of the world, 2015
Figure 10: Global renewable electricity capacity, 2015-2016
Figure 11: The structure of renewable electricity production worldwide, 2016
Figure 12: Renewable electricity capacity * in the world by country, 2016
Figure 13: Average per capita electricity in the world, 1985 – 2016
Figure 14: World’s top largest electricity producing countries, 2015 – 2016
Figure 15: Contribution structure of world electricity production, 2016
Figure 16: Electricity production volume in some countries, 2006 – 2016
Figure 17: Electricity consumption by region, 2006 – 2016
Figure 18: Top 10 most electricity consuming countries in 2016
Figure 19: World electricity exports, 1985-2016e
Figure 20: World electricity consumption prospects by region, 1980 – 2030f
Figure 21: Proportion of primary energy supply in the world, 1973
Figure 22: Total of primary energy supply in the world, 2015
Figure 23: Electricity price of household, 2016
Figure 24: Average price of electricity in the world, 2016
Figure 25: Top 10 largest countries consuming electricity per capita in the world, 2014
Figure 26: Demand for energy of some countries in Southeast Asia, 1990 – 2035f
Figure 27: Electricity consumption in ASEAN by sectors 2010 – 2035f
Figure 28: Situation of primary energy supply, 2010 – 2015
Figure 29: Domestic energy explotation from 2009 to 2015
Figure 30: Coal reserves by region, 2016f
Figure 31: Market segment of coal consumption, 2016f
Figure 32: Forecast for supply and demand coal from 2015 to 2030
Figure 33: Market segment of natural gas consumption
Figure 34: Rate of selling price of gas for electricity sector by market price, 2014 – 2015
Figure 35: Potential and characteristics of wind electricity in 3 regions and by wind speed
Figure 36: Total supply of electricity, 2010 – 2017e
Figure 37: Electricity production of Vietnam and some other countries, 2016
Figure 38: Proportion of electricity generation by supplier, 2016
Figure 39: Structure of electricity production by source of materials, 2012 – Q3/2018
Figure 40: Import of electricity, 2010 – 2017
Figure 41: Import of electricity from China, 2010 – 2016e
Figure 42: Power loss, 2010 – 2017e
Figure 43: Rate of power losses in the supply chain, 2010 – 2016
Figure 44: Maximum load and electricity system availability *, 4/2015 – 10/2017
Figure 45: Peak load by time between two main seasons, 2016
Figure 46: Commercial electricity, 2012 – 9M/2017e
Figure 47: Electricity consumption per capita of Vietnam, 2000-2016
Figure 48: Electricity consumption structure, 2017
Figure 49: Elastic electricity factor/GDP, 2010 – 2017e
Figure 50: Electricity outage, 2012 – 2017e
Figure 51: Average electricity purchase price of EVN, 1/2015 – 10/2017
Figure 52: Average electricity price, July/2007 – December /2017
Figure 53: Price of input material, January/2014 – October/2017
Figure 54: VGCM situation, 2012 – 2017
Figure 55: Structure of electricity production by primary energy source
Figure 56: Average per capita consumption of coal and and CO₂
Figure 57: Import of electrical wires and cables, 2011 – 2018e
Figure 58: Investment capital of power plants
Figure 59: Demand – supply of electricity, 2010 – 2030f
Figure 60: Growth of renewable electricity capacity, 2016 – 2030f
Figure 61: Net revenue, 2015 – 2016
Figure 62: Profit indicator, 2015 – 2016
Figure 63: Financial cost, 2015 – 2016
Figure 64: Self-financing rate, 2015 – 2016
Figure 65: Total asset, 2015 – 2016
Figure 66: Average days of receivables, 2016
Figure 67: Profit indicators, 2016
Figure 68: Days in inventory, 2016
Figure 69: Solvency, 2015 – 2016
List of tables
Table 1: Electricity generation in Southeast Asia by energy sources, 1990 – 2040f
Table 2: Demand for primary energy in Southeast Asia, 1990 – 2040f
Table 3: Increase in coal price for power generation, 2010 – 2017
Table 4: Hydroelectricity potential in Vietnam
Table 5: Data on solar radiation in Vietnam
Table 6: Schedule for solar energy development in Vietnam to 2030 with a vision to 2050
Table 7: Wind electricity potential in the provinces of Planning for development of wind electricity, 2020
Table 8: Theoretical potential and technical potential of the tidal electric power
Table 9: Geothermal potential of the regions
Table 10: Compare the advantages and disadvantages of hydroelectricity and thermal electricity
Table 11: Length of transmission grid and total capacity of distribution, 2011 – 2016
Table 12: Rate of power losses of some countries, 2011-2014
Table 13: Results of reduction of power losses in 2017 – Plan for 2018
Table 14: Commercial electricity according to the distribution companies (Million kWh), 2016 – 2018
Table 15: Electricity supply reliability criteria for 2017-2018
Table 16: Vietnam’s getting electricity indicator, 2013 – 2017
Table 17: Avoided cost tariff applied to small and medium-sized hydroelectric plants in 2017
Table 18: Average electricity wholesale price of EVN for other electricity corporations in 2016
Table 19: Comparison of electricity industry structure before and after 2008